Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2465 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2465 · BNA → ORD

departs 7:40 AM CT · arrives 9:41 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.25 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2465 · BNA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?