UA 261 · MAD → IAD

departs 11:15 AM CEST · arrives 1:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at IAD that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MAD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 261 · MAD → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?