UA 2623 · RDU → SFO

departs 9:42 AM ET · arrives 12:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ 9am departures from RDU are usually not late

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.03 in

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2623 · RDU → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?