Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2773 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2773 · IAH → SMF

departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 12:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.17 in

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2773 · IAH → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?