UA 2778 · ORD → MSY

departs 7:02 AM CT · arrives 9:28 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2778 · ORD → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?