Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2784 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

UA 2784 · PHL → ORD

departs 1:31 PM ET · arrives 2:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.04 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2784 · PHL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?