Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2794 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2794 · ORD → IAD

departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.9 mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2794 · ORD → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?