Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2807 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2807 · ORD → TVC

departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 1:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TVC?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ TVC is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TVC (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2807 · ORD → TVC

Odds over time

How late will it get to TVC?