Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2833 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2833 · RSW → IAH

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RSW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.46 in

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2833 · RSW → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?