UA 2846 · IAD → DTW

departs 10:27 PM ET · arrives 12:15 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.12 in

DTW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2846 · IAD → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?