Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2846 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2846 · IAH → OMA

departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 7:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

OMA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2846 · IAH → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?