UA 3810 · ORD → EWR

departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 7:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3810 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?