Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3909 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

UA 3909 · MEM → ORD

departs 9:14 AM CT · arrives 10:38 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3909 · MEM → ORD

Odds over time