Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 469 IN THE AIR (OFF 2:24 PM PT, ETA 3:16 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

UA 469 · LAX → SFO

took off 2:24 PM PT · expected to land 3:16 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 469 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time