Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Sunday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 475 SCHEDULED

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

UA 475 · DEN → IAH

departs 7:35 PM MT · arrives 11:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±3 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 475 · DEN → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?