Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 490 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 490 · CLE → ORD

departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 7:36 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 490 · CLE → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?