Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 498 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 498 · MEM → DEN

departs 3:25 PM CT · arrives 5:09 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at MEM that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from MEM are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

DEN (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 498 · MEM → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?