UA 4 · LHR → IAH

took off 1:54 PM BST · expected to land 6:09 PM CT (scheduled 1:37 PM BST → 6:27 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 4 · LHR → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?