Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 578 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 578 · DEN → DFW

departs 1:45 PM MT · arrives 4:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±5 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 578 · DEN → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?