UA 581 · SFO → RNO

departs 6:53 PM PT · arrives 8:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 581 · SFO → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?