UA 599 · SFO → IAD

departs 8:07 AM PT · arrives 4:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at IAD that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 599 · SFO → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?