UA 734 · ORD → FAT

departs 7:52 PM CT · arrives 10:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 734 · ORD → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?