Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 758 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 758 · JAX → EWR

departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.33 in

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 758 · JAX → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?