Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 768 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 768 · ORD → FAT

departs 8:12 PM CT · arrives 10:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 768 · ORD → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?