UA 8223 · SEA → IAD

departs 11:16 PM PT · arrives 7:35 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi forecast at IAD that day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8223 · SEA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?