Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1017
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1017 · BWI → PVD
departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
3pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.42 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.