Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1021 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 1021 · BUR → SMF

departs 11:15 AM PT · arrives 12:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ BUR is prone to delays

↑ Sundays in October are usually busier than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1021 · BUR → SMF

Odds over time