Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1044
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1044 · SFO → LAS
departs 4:05 PM PT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.