WN 1070 · PHX → BUF

departs 12:16 PM MT · arrives 7:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1070 · PHX → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?