WN 1100 · ORF → MDW

departs 7:26 PM ET · arrives 8:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at ORF that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.12 in

MDW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1100 · ORF → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?