Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1103 LANDED 8:29 AM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Yesterday

WN 1103 · STL → LGA

took off 5:45 AM CT · landed 8:29 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from STL are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1103 · STL → LGA

Odds over time