Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1111 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

WN 1111 · BWI → STL

departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ 3pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.45 in

STL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1111 · BWI → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?