Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1121
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 1121 · BWI → TPA
departs 1:40 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Thu 10/8 12%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.