WN 1160 · MSY → AUS

departs 9:36 PM CT · arrives 11:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSY usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.78 in

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1160 · MSY → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?