WN 1172 · BWI → STL

departs 10:40 PM ET · arrives 12:07 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.09 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1172 · BWI → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?