WN 1180 · BWI → TPA

departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 8:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.18 in

TPA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1180 · BWI → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?