WN 1193 · SAN → SFO

departs 2:40 PM PT · arrives 4:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts +37 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
52%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1193 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?