Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 1196 · DAL → TPA
departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 1:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.21 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.