WN 1223 · SMF → BUR

departs 6:58 PM PT · arrives 8:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +26 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1223 · SMF → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?