WN 1234 · SJD → SAN

departs 2:01 PM MST · arrives 4:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD

↑ 2pm departures from SJD are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SJD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1234 · SJD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?