Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1250
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1250 · BWI → AUS
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 8:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.42 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.