WN 1265 · GEG → SAN

took off 12:09 PM PT · expected to land 2:22 PM PT (scheduled 11:05 AM PT → 1:57 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

93% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

LIVE

On time or early
7%
15–30 min late
44%
30 min–1 hour late
48%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

GEG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1265 · GEG → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?