Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1291
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1291 · DAL → TPA
departs 5:10 PM CT · arrives 8:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Thu 10/8 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
5pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.07 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.