Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1404 LANDED 9:56 AM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 1404 · DAL → MCO

took off 6:52 AM CT · landed 9:56 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from DAL are usually not late

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.27 in

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1404 · DAL → MCO

Odds over time