Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1409 · AUS → RNO
departs 8:20 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.