WN 1423 · CVG → BNA

took off 4:31 PM ET · expected to land 4:14 PM CT (scheduled 4:25 PM ET → 4:44 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BNA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from CVG are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1423 · CVG → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?