Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1424 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

Sunday, October 4

WN 1424 · MCO → ELP

departs 10:20 AM ET · arrives 11:55 AM MT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 112h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Sunday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±9 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

Typical odds come from past years’ weather on this date, so there are no forecast drivers yet.

Weather at each end

Too early for a weather forecast for Sun, Oct 4. These odds use the weather this date has had in past years; the forecast for MCO and ELP appears here about 3 days before departure.

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1424 · MCO → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?