Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1435
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1435 · LAS → SMF
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 10:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.