Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1470 · MDW → ORF
departs 7:45 AM CT · arrives 10:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORF that day
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.