Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1477
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1477 · DEN → AUS
departs 1:15 PM MT · arrives 4:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.